Donald Trump’s path to victory
President Trump is, without question, an underdog -- and a clear one -- going into Tuesday's election. But, a long shot is not a no shot. And there is a somewhat plausible electoral map that gets him to 270 electoral votes and a second term.
Here's how: Give Trump the 125 electoral votes that are solidly in his camp, centered in the upper Plains states and the South. Then give him battleground states that have traditionally favored Republicans at the presidential level: Texas (38 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Ohio (18) and Arizona (11). That gets Trump to 208 electoral votes.
No Republican has won the White House in nearly a century without winning Florida, and for Trump to win he needs the Sunshine State -- and its 29 electoral votes -- too. Which gets Trump to 237 total.
And while polls show Iowa (6) and North Carolina (15) quite close, Trump won them both in 2016, so give him the benefit of the doubt there. That's 258 electoral votes.
At which point, it would all come down to Pennsylvania, which appears to be the state in the upper Midwest that Trump carried in 2016 where he has the best chance of winning again. Win Pennsylvania and Trump is at 278 electoral votes, and a second term is his.